New top story from Time: Pete Buttigieg in the Hot Seat in Atlanta: Follow the November Democratic Debate Live
Pete Buttigieg enters the fifth major Democratic debate Wednesday with a newfound status—the candidate in the hot seat.
The South Bend, Ind., mayor will face off against nine other Democratic presidential candidates in Atlanta, but something has changed since last month’s debate: Buttigieg has surged in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.
His Democratic competitors are likely to use Wednesday’s debate try to bring him back down a few pegs. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren fielded repeated attacks in the October debate after she jumped in the polls. Now, it’s likely Buttigieg’s turn.
MSNBC and the Washington Post are the co-hosts for Wednesday’s debate, which airs live from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m. EST. The debate will broadcast on MSNBC and stream on MSNBC.com and washingtonpost.com. Viewers can also watch on the NBC News and Washington Post apps, or listen on SiriusXM Channel 118 and TuneIn.
Ten candidates will take the stage, two fewer than last month. The requirements to appear in November’s debate increased since October: candidates had until 11:59 p.m. on Nov. 13 to reach 3% in at least four qualifying polls or 5% in two early state polls since Sept. 12, and needed to receive 165,000 unique donors with at least 600 from at least 20 states.
Here’s everyone who made the cut:
- former Vice President Joe Biden
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
- South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
- California Sen. Kamala Harris
- Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
- billionaire executive Tom Steyer
- Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
- entrepreneur Andrew Yang
Former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro missed the polling requirements and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke dropped out of the race on Nov. 1.
An all-female panel will moderate the debate: the host of MSNBC’s The Rachel Maddow Show Rachel Maddow, NBC’s chief foreign affairs correspondent Andrea Mitchell, NBC News White House correspondent Kristen Welker and Washington Post White House reporter Ashley Parker.
On top of Buttigieg’s recent spike in the polls, other factors have changed since October. Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick entered the race and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has also hinted at a run; some argue their candidacies represent a centrist response to Warren’s progressive surge. The House of Representatives also began public hearings for the impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump—which dominated news on Tuesday and Wednesday. Warren also released—and faced scrutiny for—her plan to pay for Medicare for All. All of these factors will loom over the debate and likely impact questions.
In addition to the news, the usual Democratic issues of healthcare, immigration, taxes and gun control will also likely get more airtime.
This could also be some candidates’ last chance to make a splash before they have to qualify for the sixth Democratic debate in December. Next month’s requirements to make the stage are even harder: candidates will need to get at least 200,000 unique donors with a minimum of 800 from at least 20 states. They’ll also need to receive at least 4% in at least four national or early state polls or 6% in two single-state early state polls. So far, six candidates have qualified.
Follow along for live coverage of tonight’s November Democratic debate.
How is Pete Buttigieg doing in the polls?
Buttigieg has dramatically risen in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, beating out Warren, Sanders and even Biden. In the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll, 25% of likely 2020 Democratic caucus-goers said Buttigieg would be their first choice for president, dramatically ahead of Warren’s 16%, Biden’s 15% and Sanders’s 15%. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Warren had lead the poll in September, with 22% saying she was their first choice.
According to RealClearPolitics’ average of Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus polls on Wednesday, Buttigieg leads the pack with 22.7%, followed by Biden’s 18.7%, Warren’s 17.3% and Sanders’ 16.7%.
Buttigieg also has a 10-point lead in New Hampshire in a Saint Anselm College poll released on Tuesday, which found that he had 25% support among self-identified likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 6.1 points. That’s a 15-point jump from the last Saint Anselm College poll in September. Despite his lead in the new poll, he’s still not the consensus pick for the Granite State. Warren leads RealClearPolitics’ average of New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary polls on Wednesday with 20.7%, followed by Biden’s 19.0% and Buttigieg in third at 18.7%.
Iowa and New Hampshire are crucial because they are the earliest to weigh in on the Democratic primary process. The Iowa Caucus on Feb. 3 is the first major contest of the election year, followed on Feb. 11 by the first primary election in New Hampshire. Nevada comes third on Feb. 22 and South Carolina fourth on Feb. 29.
Buttigieg hasn’t made as much progress in Nevada or South Carolina. Biden leads in RealClearPolitics’ polling average of the Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus with 29.0%, followed by Warren at 20.0%, Sanders at 19.8% and Buttigieg with 7.3%. Biden has an even bigger lead in RealClearPolitics’ polling average of the South Carolina primary: He has 35.5% support, followed by Warren’s 16.3%, Sanders’s 12.8% and then Buttigieg’s 6.5%.
This could be due to Buttigieg’s struggle to gain support amongst black voters; A Quinnipiac poll of South Carolina released this week found that he has less that 1% support among black voters, compared to Biden’s 44%.
Biden is still leading in the polls nationally. RealClearPolitics’ national polling average found the following ranking of the candidates in Wednesday’s debate:
- 30.7% Biden
- 18.0% Warren
- 16.7% Sanders
- 8.0% Buttigieg
- 4.3% Harris
- 2.3% Yang
- 2.0% Gabbard
- 1.7% Klobuchar
- 1.3% Booker
- 1.0% Steyer
Wednesday’s debate could prove consequential for Buttigieg—it could either hasten or hinder his momentum, depending on his performance.
American University Professor of Government James Thurber put it simply: “Watch Pete Buttigieg.”
Will impeachment come up in the November Democratic Debate?
Impeachment was the first question of the October democratic debate. The recent start of public hearings could spur more questions for the candidates, and Wednesday’s back-to-back testimonies in particular seem likely to come up. Gordon Sondland, the U.S. Ambassador to the European Union and key witness in the inquiry, testified that he and other U.S. officials worked at the “direction of the President” when they they cooperated with Rudy Giuliani in urging Ukraine to open investigations—into the 2016 election and the Ukrainian energy company company where Joe Biden’s son sat on the board—as conditions for a meeting with the White House.
Sondland also said the requests—which came through Rudy Giuliani—were “were a quid pro quo for arranging a White House visit for President [Volodymyr] Zelensky,.”
“Since this debate is occurring during the impeachment hearings, it seems like a hard issue to avoid,” Seth Masket, a professor of political science at the University of Denver, says in an email. He points out the candidates actually don’t disagree on impeachment—every single one supports the inquiry—but they’ll likely be asked anyway.
But just because they will be fielding questions about impeachment, doesn’t mean the candidates necessarily want to talk about it.
“I think the candidates are striving to try and keep [the impeachment inquiry] apart from the race, and want to be able to talk about the issues,” Margaret O’Mara, a professor of American political history at the University of Washington, tells TIME. “But’s it still… the impeachment of the person one of them will presumable go up against in 2020, so it’s hanging over them.”
https://ift.tt/2rZcYFP
Madeleine Carlisle
November 21, 2019 at 01:05AM
